This mixed methods study with Nicholas Papageorge (Economics, JHU) examines how beliefs about educational attainment and anticipated adverse shocks (e.g., evictions, incarcerations or deaths of family members, or violence) relate to educational plans and actual attainment for disadvantaged youth. The project is methodologically unique in that qualitative data gathered through open ended interviews of students making decisions will be used to specify a structural econometric model of post-secondary educational decision-making. In turn, the structural model will shed light on what kinds of additional data should be collected to estimate parameters of a model that could be used to evaluate how counterfactual policies can improve outcomes.